New Delhi, June 11 -- El Nino- the Pacific warming pattern that weakens India's monsoon and drives harsh summers - is now underway, according to Japan's meteorological agency on Wednesday, a declaration that puts India's weather establishment on notice as the rain-bearing season struggles to establish itself. The Japan Meteorological Agency said conditions characteristic of El Nino have been observed in both the ocean and atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific, and that an event is currently underway. India's own weather office has not yet made the same declaration, but the threshold is close. "We will issue a statement soon based on the models we consult, on the onset of El Nino conditions," said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, issuing its assessment on June 9, stopped short of a full declaration but confirmed the Pacific is closing in on the threshold. Sea-surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific now exceed El Ninothresholds, and atmospheric indicators are beginning to align, BOM said. "Should this be sustained, an El Nino event is likely to become established," it said. The development confirms what IMD's revised forecast on May 29 had anticipated. India's monsoon rainfall this season is projected at 90% of the long-period average - down from the 92% forecast in April - with El Nino expected to suppress rainfall particularly in the second half of the season. The LPA, based on 1971-2020 data, is 87cm. The forecast also flags a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon. The season's importance to India cannot be overstated. Nearly half of the country's net-sown area lacks irrigation access, and the system replenishes 91 natural reservoirs that supply power generation and drinking water. The season arrives as cultivators already face a potential shortfall in fertiliser supplies caused by West Asia war....