BSP's October 9 rally: Maya looks to get back to winning ways in UP
LUCKNOW, Oct. 8 -- Manyavar Kanshi Ram Ji Smarak Sthal is decked up for the show of strength by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) on the occasion of the death anniversary of party founder Kanshi Ram on Thursday (October 9).
BSP workers and supporters from across the state started arriving in the city on Tuesday, all eager to know the strategy and the winning formula that party chief Mayawati will unveil for the 2027 assembly polls from the precincts of the Kanshi Ram Memorial. The presence of BSP national convenor Akash Anand in the mega show has added to the enthusiasm of party supporters.
After the defeat in the successive assembly elections - 2012, 2017 and 2022 as well as 2014, 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP chief is in search of a winning formula and thereby to establish her supremacy in state politics.
After losing power in the state in 2012, Mayawati has been working on various caste formulas in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections but it has failed to pave the way to power for the BSP. Rather, the BSP support base and vote share have been shrinking in the successive elections.
In the era when the BJP, the Congress and the SP are working on alliances to consolidate their position, Mayawati had reiterated that her party will neither opt for any alliance with the BJP-led NDA alliance nor with the Congress-led INDIA alliance nor with any other front. The BSP is going solo in the Bihar assembly election though it had sewed seven party alliances in the 2020 election and bagged one seat. The workers are anxious to know if Mayawati will amend her strategy in the 2027 UP assembly election.
Launched in 1984 for the political empowerment of the Dalit community, the BSP emerged as the force to reckon with in the early nineties. The aggressive campaign launched by party founder Kanshi Ram by mobilising the Dalit community led to the shift of the Dalits from the Congress to the BSP.
The call of Kanshi Ram to grab the key of the power further consolidated BSP's hold over the Dalit community. In the 1993 assembly election when the Ram Mandir movement was at its peak and the saffron brigade was confident of regaining power, the BSP surprised political observers by forming a coalition with the Samajwadi Party. The Dalit-OBC-Muslim formula brought the BSP-SP alliance government to power.
With firm hold over the Dalits, the BSP dictated terms to the SP and the BJP. In 1995, the BSP broke the alliance with the SP to form a government with the BJP. The BSP contested the 1996 assembly election in alliance with the Congress but failed to increase its tally in legislative assembly. In 1997, the BSP again formed a government in alliance with the BJP. It contested the 2002 assembly election on Dalit-OBC- Muslim formula to increase its tally from 65 to 98 seats but it remained far away from an absolute majority. Later, Mayawati formed a government with support of the BJP to resign in August 2003.
She realised that with support of the Dalits, BSP will not grab power in UP. She then started working on the Dalit-upper caste formula termed social engineering to form a government with an absolute majority in 2007.
In the 2012 assembly election, the BSP worked on Dalit-Muslim formula but lost power. In the 2017 assembly election, it worked on the Dalit- OBC formula but it failed to check the decline. In the 2022 assembly polls, Mayawati tried to rework the Dalit- Brahmin formula but managed to win only a single seat. The BSP failed to open its account in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and the SP- Congress alliance managed to make inroads into its Dalit support base.
The 2027 assembly election is crucial for Mayawati as another defeat will not only erode her party core support base-the Jatavs-but might prove to be the end of the road for the BSP in state politics. The PDA formula of the SP and the rise of the Azad Samaj Party leader Chandra Shekhar Azad have proved to be another challenge for the BSP to maintain hold over the Dalits.
BSP state unit president Vishwanath Pal is optimistic. "The party chief's message on October 9 will definitely fill the cadre with enthusiasm and give them a direction to work to regain the lost ground in Uttar Pradesh," he said.
"The BSP is working on 'sarvajan hitay- sarvajan sukhay' ( welfare of all the communities) formula to win the support of all the communities. The party is organising cadre camps in all the assembly segments to regain its support base," he added.
"The focus is on the youth who are diverted by the rival parties. Senior party leaders have been directed to attend the camps to make the youth aware of the struggle of party founder Kanshi Ram and party chief Mayawati," Pal said.
The BSP support base and vote has been declining in the successive elections. In the 2007 assembly election, the BSP polled 30.43% votes to form the government on its own. In the 2012 assembly election, the BSP polled 25.95% votes to bag 80 seats. In the 2017 assembly polls, the it secured 22.23% votes to win 19 seats and in the 2022 assembly election, its vote percentage dipped to 12.88% and the BSP was able to win merely one seat.
In the Lok Sabha election, the story is no different. In the 2004 general election, the BSP polled 24.67% votes to bag 19 seats. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, it polled 27.42% votes to bag 20 seats. In the 2014 LS election, the vote percentage declined to 19.77% and the BSP failed to open its account. In the 2019 LS election, it contested election in alliance with the SP to bag 10 seats by polling 19.42 % votes. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BSP's vote share declined to 9.35% and it failed to open an account....
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