Lucknow, May 28 -- Even as several parts of Uttar Pradesh continue to witness complaints of transformer failures, feeder tripping and local outages during peak summer demand, power utilities have projected an 11% rise in connected load and nearly 12% increase in electricity sales by FY2026-27 compared to 2024-25, raising fresh questions about whether the state's distribution infrastructure can cope with the rising demand. The projections come amid repeated reports of localised outages and infrastructure stress during summer peaks despite significant expenditure on system strengthening. While domestic consumers are set to continue to be the biggest electricity users, agriculture and industrial consumers are also projected to contribute to the growing burden on the network. Data recently placed by the UP Power Corporation Ltd (UPPCL) before the UP Electricity Regulatory Commission for tariff determination show that the total connected load across the state's five discoms is projected to rise from 8.17 crore kW in FY 2024-25 to 9.08 crore kW in FY 2026-27, an increase of around 11%. Electricity sales are estimated to increase from 1,27,406 million units (MU) to 1,43,014 MU, nearly 12% higher than FY25 levels. The state's distribution and transmission capacity was already lagging behind the actual peak load, according to UP Rajya Vidyut Upbhokta Parishad chairman Avdhesh Kumar Verma. "The utilities need to augment their capacities to handle the increasing power load in the time to come so that there is no gap between the sanctioned demand and the actual demand," he demanded. The data show that the household segment will continue to exert the largest burden on the network. The LMV-1 domestic category is projected to account for nearly 61% of total connected load. Connected load is expected to rise from 5.03 crore kW in FY25 to 5.53 crore kW in FY27. Power sales in the segment are projected to increase from 60,715 MU to 68,194 MU. The significance of the domestic category goes beyond its size. Unlike industrial consumers where loads are generally measured and monitored more accurately, actual domestic demand can sometimes exceed officially recorded figures. Officials said that increasing use of air-conditioners, coolers, water pumps and other high-load appliances without corresponding enhancement of sanctioned load can create hidden pressure on local networks. In some areas, unauthorised connections and power theft can further widen the gap between recorded and actual consumption. The mismatch often manifests itself at the local level through overloaded transformers and feeder breakdowns even when overall system projections appear manageable. The UPPCL has already realised this fact and has decided to put up signboards on the overloaded transformers in theft-prone localities. Agriculture continues to be a major contributor to Uttar Pradesh's demand profile, with private tube wells emerging as the second-largest connected load category after domestic consumers. The connected load under this category is projected to increase from around 89.6 lakh kW in FY2024-25 to nearly more than 1 crore kW by FY2026-27, while electricity sales are estimated to rise from 21,273 MU to 23,994 MU. Since agricultural demand often rises sharply during irrigation cycles and summer months, concentrated load in rural pockets creates additional pressure on local transformers and feeders. Currently, private tubewells are supplied eight hours of electricity every day. Apart from households, large consumers and emerging categories are also expected to record substantial growth. Connected load under the HV-2 category, covering large and heavy power consumers (large industries), is projected to rise from 62.37 lakh kW in FY25 to 71.37 lakh kW in FY27, while electricity sales are expected to increase from 14,872 MU to 16,921 MU. Electric vehicle charging is expected to witness the fastest growth. Connected load under the category is projected to rise from 76,376 kW in FY25 to 1,83,779 kW by FY27, while electricity sales are estimated to almost double from 124 MU to 236 MU. "The projections suggest that the larger challenge in coming years may not necessarily be availability of electricity but whether local distribution infrastructure like feeders, transformers and last-mile networks can absorb rising demand," an official of the energy department said....