Street lights up for Diwali,may test pre-war levels
mumbai, Nov. 7 -- Indian equities headed into Diwali with a second straight weekly gain, powered by cheaper crude amid rising hopes of an end to the Iran war following US President Donald Trump's midterm election setback, and renewed foreign buying, even as a sell-off in technology stocks battered several overseas markets.
The Nifty and Sensex rose nearly 9% each during the week, marking their strongest weekly gains since February 2021, when optimism over a growth-oriented Union Budget had sparked a rally of nearly 10%. On Friday, the Nifty rose 2% to close at 25,030.35, while the Sensex advanced 2.2% to 81,028.
The strong market momentum helped the index break above the 24,774.3 resistance level, not tested since August 3. The current momentum could propel the market towards 25,178.65, the level at which it was trading before the West Asia war began February-end, said an analyst at Aditya Birla Money.
Consumer durables, realty and financial services led the weekly rally as investors favoured businesses tied to domestic demand.
India's limited exposure to the global artificial intelligence (AI) trade helped it buck the sell-off elsewhere, said Kranthi Bathini, director of research at WealthMills Securities.
Corrections in AI, semiconductor and data-centre stocks weighed on overseas markets, while falling oil prices improved India's appeal, he added.
The rebound has raised hopes that Indian equities are regaining their footing after a difficult stretch. But analysts remain divided on whether it marks a durable recovery or reflects expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.
Brent crude's retreat below $100 a barrel on expectations of a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict offered relief to investors worried about India's import bill, inflation and corporate margins. Anil Rego, founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Right Horizons, attributed the rally to cheaper oil, renewed foreign investor buying and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices retreated after Trump's Republican Party lost its majorities in both chambers of Congress to the Democrats in the November 3 midterm elections, raising hopes that the outcome would increase pressure on the US president to end the Iran war. Foreign portfolio investors bought a net Rs.22,693 crore of Indian equities during the week, including primary-market investments. Domestic institutional investors, meanwhile, sold a net Rs.18,227 crore, including a record single-day outflow of Rs.10,444.5 crore on November 4.
Bathini said domestic institutions have been selling to raise cash after investing steadily over the past few quarters.
Abhishek Mishra, founding partner at SKG, offered a more cautious assessment. "This is a relief rally that has not yet become a recovery," he said, arguing that much of the advance rested on hopes of a peace agreement rather than a lasting resolution of the risks troubling investors.
For the rally to become sustainable, Brent would need to remain below roughly $90-95 a barrel, foreign buying must continue for several weeks and earnings expectations must improve, he added. All sectoral indices ended the week higher. BSE Consumer Durables led with a nearly 11% gain, while Realty and Financial Services rose 10% each. Auto gained 9.2%, while Oil & Gas, and Energy advanced 9% each. Bathini favoured domestically-oriented businesses, including banks, financial services companies, consumer firms and defence stocks....
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