New Delhi, Aug. 18 -- Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather on Monday issued a revised forecast for the southwest monsoon, stating it now expects monsoon rainfall to be 85% of the long period average (LPA), with a 70% probability of drought. In its initial forecast issued in April, Skymet had forecastthe monsoon to be 94% ofthe LPA, flagging a worsening trend, aided by a strengthening El Nino. "Skymet foresees a 70% chance of drought and expects the seasonal rainfall to be 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA)," it said in a statement on Monday. "Skymet predicts that August may end with a monthly shortfall of 16% rainfall of LPA. Growing El Nino and weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will cast a shadow, and the month of September is likely to be rain-deficit by 20% of LPA," it added. To be sure, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its April forecast had said the monsoon rainfall was likely to be 92% of LPA this year. However, in its June outlook, IMD revised this forecast downward - to 90% - and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season, meaning there is a better-than-even chance that total rainfall falls below the threshold that even qualifies as below-normal. IMD has not shared a revised forecast for the overall monsoon season since. "Another update will be issued by the end of August," a senior IMD official said. As of August 17, the all India rainfall was 13% below LPA. August has largely seen the monsoon deficit stay static, between 11-13%....