RBI leaves rate path open as inflation rises
Mumbai, Aug. 20 -- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy rate steady even as retail inflation has risen steadily in recent months, with governor Sanjay Malhotra signalling that the central bank has left open the direction of its next rate move, depending on how persistent the price pressures prove to be, the minutes of the August policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed.
Retail inflation rose from 2.74% in January to 4.45% in July, with food and fuel prices driving much of the recent increase. Yet, the RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% at its August 5 meeting, choosing to wait for greater clarity on whether the rise in inflation will persist or become broad-based.
"I would prefer to wait for more certainty to emerge on the inflation trajectory in terms of the persistence of realised prints at these or higher levels, the forecast, and the likely levels to which inflation may normalise and settle for any recalibration of the policy rate," he said.
He also cautioned the central bank would need to remain vigilant to risks from food, fuel and other input prices feeding into broader inflation. "Any evidence of these risks materialising may need policy tightening," the governor said in his statement recorded in the minutes.
Malhotra himself had voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and to retain the 'neutral' stance on August 5. Headline inflation has averaged 3.93% from January to July this year, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel components and better reflects underlying demand, stood at 3.9% in July, against an expectation of 4.08%. Core inflation is expected to converge with headline inflation in the final quarter of this fiscal year....
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