New Delhi, April 1 -- There is a 62% chance of El Nino emerging in June-July-August period and an 80% chance of it persisting in August-September-October, the India Meteorological Department said in a seasonal forecast on Tuesday, projections that portent pain for India's farm sector, which is likely to face challenging conditions also due constraints in fertiliser supplies due to the West Asian war. A "majority of models" show an El Nino taking hold from July onwards, the India Meteorological Department said in a pre-monsoon forecast, referring to a probability cited by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. El Nino events, marked by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, often lead to drought-like conditions. Poorer rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season tends to increase fertiliser demand, as farmers apply more nutrients in an attempt to protect yields. Adequate rainfall is critical for farm output and rural incomes, and helps contain inflation, which is already facing upward pressure due to higher commodity prices linked to the West Asian crisis, analysts said. India relies on imports of natural gas - a key feedstock for domestic fertiliser production - as well as several types of fertilisers to meet demand. These supplies have been disrupted following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing imports significantly. However, some studies suggest there is no direct one-to-one correlation between El Nino events and drought. Still, an El Nino in 2009 triggered India's worst drought in three decades, severely affecting farm incomes. "There is a clearly noticeable pattern during El Nino years, when peaks and troughs in rainfall deviation from its long-period average are reflected in corresponding fluctuations in agricultural growth," said economist D K Srivastava....