India, April 27 -- The ceasefire between the US and Iran, first announced on April 8, now looks less like a diplomatic breakthrough and more like a fragile, reversible pause shaped by coercion, miscalculation, and competing political compulsions. What has unfolded since is not a linear movement toward de-escalation, but a volatile sequence of tactical moves, reversals, and escalatory signals that underscore a deeper truth: Neither side has found a workable pathway to negotiation, yet both remain deeply invested in leverage.

At the core of the current impasse lies a fundamental contradiction. Tehran has made the removal of the US-led naval blockade a precondition for talks, framing it as a matter of sovereignty and economic survival. Wash...