India, Jan. 14 -- It's been nearly five months since the tariffs on Indian exports to the US hit a massive 50% - half of it termed "penalty" by President Donald Trump over India's purchase of Russian oil - and there continues to be uncertainty on when a trade deal may be struck, if at all.

Trade negotiations between officials of the two countries have been underway since before the tariffs took effect, having formally started in March-April last year after a February greenlight for talks. Statements made by Trump and some key officials in his administration over the past few days have further deepened the mystery.

One of Trump's key aides, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, claimed that a potential trade deal between India and the US...