India, May 11 -- Bhuvneshwar Kumar walked in to bat against the Mumbai Indians with the Royal Challengers Bengaluru eight down, Romario Shepherd gone, and 9 needed from the last three balls. MI had dragged the chase into its tightest corner, with Raj Angad Bawa defending the final over and RCB forced to trust a specialist bowler while the match still had enough danger to flip.

The model gave RCB a 51.49% chance at that point. The number captured the danger better than the equation alone could. The target was close, but the chase still needed a boundary from an unlikely source.

Bhuvneshwar gave them exactly that.

His six brought the equation down to 3 off 2, lifted RCB's win probability to 99.38%, and turned one of the most fragile mome...