India, May 2 -- India may be heading into a season where heat, lightning, water stress and crop risk intensify together, but we can prepare now. The India Meteorological Department's first-stage forecast says the 2026 southwest monsoon is most likely to be below normal at 92% of the long-period average, largely due to the possible development of El Niño during the season. That matters because in India, a delayed or weaker monsoon does not just mean less rain. It often means a longer spell of intense heat and humidity before the rains set in, more uncertainty for sowing, and rising stress on water, crops and health.

The first people to feel this are often farmers and agricultural workers. June is not a waiting room between summer and...