India, May 31 -- Every winning captain says roughly the same thing at the presentation. Backing the process. Trusting the boys. Taking it one game at a time. It sounds like nothing. It is, in fact, everything, because the process they are describing has a very specific shape, and that shape shows up in the data with uncomfortable consistency.

For a long time, received wisdom held that T20 cricket was decided at the death. Win overs 16 to 20, and you win the game. The data from recent seasons has quietly buried that idea. Winning teams in the powerplay run at 9.41. Losing teams run at 8.40. A difference of one run per over, compounding across six overs into a lead the rest of the innings, almost never overturns. Look at every final in thi...