India, Nov. 15 -- The 2020 assembly elections were a photo finish in Bihar and both major alliances ended up with almost the same vote share with a difference of just 0.03% in the votes polled between them. This time, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has around a 10 percentage points lead in terms of vote share vis-a-vis the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) or Grand Alliance. As is often the case in the first-past-the-post system, the seat share difference between the two alliances has increased even more: a massive 68.7 percentage point lead for the NDA compared to just six percentage points in 2020. What really happened? Here is a breakdown of the electoral math, as it changed between the 2020 and 2025 elections in Bihar.

While MGB's vote s...