India, July 12 -- The betting markets still have this right, in one sense. Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi deserve to sit atop the Golden Ball race. Both have eight goals, both have inspired their nations into the World Cup semifinals, and both remain the biggest stars of the tournament.

But over the last week, two knockout matches played under completely different circumstances have quietly produced the strongest third candidate. Jude Bellingham now belongs in that conversation, even if he remains behind two of the greatest players ever to grace the World Cup.

It began in Mexico City. More than 80,000 fans packed the stadium. England were down to ten men for much of the second half, their World Cup hopes hanging by a thread against Mexi...