India, April 1 -- There is a 62% chance of El Nino emerging in June-July-August period and an 80% chance of it persisting in August-September-October, the India Meteorological Department said in a seasonal forecast on Tuesday, projections that portend pain for India's farm sector, which is likely to face challenging conditions also due to constraints in fertiliser supplies due to the West Asian war.

A "majority of models" show an El Nino taking hold from July onwards, the India Meteorological Department said in a pre-monsoon forecast, referring to a probability cited by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino events, marked by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, often lead to drought-like conditions. Poore...