India, June 18 -- Spain are the most likely team to lift the 2026 World Cup. Across 10,000 simulated tournaments, they came out on top 6.87% of the time.

The number reads as small until you set it against the field. This is a 48-team tournament, the largest in the competition's history. Give every side an even shot and each one sits at roughly 2%. Spain's 6.87% is more than triple that, and more than double the next team on the list. In a sport that prides itself on being unpredictable, the model is making an unusually firm call.

Argentina come second at 2.94%, France third at 2.91%, and England fourth at 1.61%. After that, the numbers fall off a cliff. Portugal, in fifth, sit at 0.64%. So it is effectively a four-team race, and then ev...