India, April 30 -- A below-normal monsoon in India's wheat belt is testing an uncomfortable truth: the Reserve Bank's uniform policy rate cannot solve geographically asymmetric inflation shocks without creating new economic tensions.

India's monsoon forecast, released by the India Meteorological Department on 14 April 2026, carries a warning that extends far beyond crop productivity. The 2026 southwest monsoon season is predicted to deliver 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall (870 mm), with a model error margin of 5 per cent either way. This places the forecast squarely in the below-normal category. More critically, the spatial distribution reveals a troubling concentration: Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh. India's prim...