India, July 21 -- In January 2026, the authors' article in Down to Earth argued that the 16th Finance Commission had a rare opportunity to move India's ecological fiscal transfers beyond static forest by expanding the indicator base, rewarding performance alongside possession, and aligning fiscal incentives with real conservation outcomes. The Commission's report has since been released, and this article examines what changed. The revised formula takes a meaningful step: open forests are now included, and a fifth of the ecological pool is tied to improvement in forest cover. Yet a state-level look of the Rs 7.83 lakh crore ecological allocation reveals a structural tension. The states facing the greatest pressure to conserve are not alway...