NEW YORK/AUSTIN, Aug. 14 -- A global shift in oil market dynamics is raising alarm across the U.S. shale sector, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increases supply in what industry leaders are calling a calculated price war. Crude oil prices have dropped by nearly 13% since April, falling to around $62 per barrel-well below the break-even price for many American shale producers, now struggling to maintain profitability.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a rare decline in American oil production by 2026, predicting output to drop from a record 13.6 million barrels per day to 13.1 million. This would mark the first annual decrease in nearly a decade, excluding the pandemic years. The p...