Dar es Salaam, Aug. 12 -- IN Nairobi, the syndicate line goes quiet. Traders mark up a new Kenya 2033 bond seventy basis points wider than guidance, citing a ratings overhang. It is a script African debt managers know: A whisper of downgrade risk, a ripple in liquidity and the sovereigns cost of borrowing jumps.

The question is whether the continent is paying more than fundamentals warrant, or whether global credit markets simply do not know how to price African risk.

The starting point is scale and timing. After a near-freeze in 2022–2023, sub-Saharan Africa returned to international markets in 2024 and raised more than 13 billion US dollars in Eurobonds.

That reopening was led by Ivory Coasts 2.6 billion US dollars dual-tranche...