Mumbai, May 13 -- The US Energy Information Administration or EIA stated in a monthly update yesterday that disruptions to crude oil production in the Middle East have increased significantly since our April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). It assesses that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 10.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in April. This report assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until late May, with shipping traffic beginning to pick up in June.
Oil shipments through the strait, however, will not likely reach pre-conflict levels until later this year, and we expect some oil production in the Middle East to remain disrupted over that period. Disr...