Nairobi, June 29 -- The recent ceasefire framework in the Middle East has given markets something they badly wanted; a reason to breathe. Oil prices have eased from their highs. Investors have responded positively.

And after months of conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, it is understandable that many would like to believe the worst is behind us.

But for investors, especially those responsible for long-term savings and policyholder funds, relief is not the same thing as safety.The real effects of a conflict like this do not end when the headlines soften.

They move quietly through the system, through fuel prices, freight costs, inflation, currencies, interest rates and borrowing costs. By the time those pressures show ...