Dhaka, March 18 -- War in the Middle East means investors may not only have to contemplate a higher oil price, but also a stronger dollar than many had bargained for at the start of the year.

The greenback has emerged as one of the clearest "safe-haven" winners since the US-Israeli strike on Iran on Feb 28 sparked conflict across the region and virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off nearly a fifth of global oil supplies.

The dollar has outshone all other currencies, including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen and outperformed other traditional safe havens like Treasuries and gold by a considerable margin. Suddenly, the bearish 2026 consensus for the dollar looks extremely stale.

Unexpected dollar strength could have far-reac...