Kenya, Aug. 8 -- Japan's record population decline of 861,237 in 2023, the largest annual drop ever recorded, has intensified concerns over the nation's demographic crisis, with only 727,277 births against 1,575,936 deaths, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
The fertility rate, at a mere 1.26 children per woman, remains well below the 2.1 needed for population stability, while over 29% of Japan's 124,352,000 residents are aged 65 or older.
High living costs, rigid work culture, and societal pressures are driving this decline, prompting urgent government measures to address economic and cultural challenges.
Japan's population crisis, marked by a 2023 decline of 861,237, underscores a deepening demographic challenge, with births plummeting to 727,277, a 5.6% drop from 2022's 770,747, while deaths reached a postwar high of 1,575,936.
The fertility rate of 1.26, one of the lowest globally, reflects a persistent downward trend since the 1970s, far below the replacement threshold, as noted by Newsweek. Urbanisation, high childcare costs, and demanding work hours deter young couples from starting families, with Tokyo's fertility rate dipping to 0.99 in 2023.
Economic pressures, including stagnant wages and a high cost of living, Japan ranking third globally for child-rearing expenses, force many women to prioritise careers over motherhood, exacerbated by traditional gender roles expecting them to handle child-rearing, as highlighted in the Michigan Journal of Economics.
The ageing population, with 29.1% over 65 in 2023, strains Japan's economy, with a record old-age dependency ratio of 48.6 seniors per 100 working adults, according to Worldometer.
This demographic shift, coupled with a shrinking workforce (59.4% of the population), threatens economic growth, as labour shortages impact sectors like healthcare, education, and retail.
Over 1.2 million small businesses face closure due to owners ageing without successors. The government's social security system, burdened by rising pension and healthcare costs, faces sustainability challenges, with public spending projected to increase significantly by 2060, when 40% of the population will be elderly.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, labelling the crisis a "silent emergency", has prioritised boosting the fertility rate through expanded childcare and free high school education, though past efforts, like Fumio Kishida's 2023 budget doubling for child-related policies, have yielded limited results.
Cultural factors, including declining marriage rates, further exacerbate the low birth rate. Only 499,999 marriages were recorded in 2024, a slight 2.2% increase from 2023's low, but the long-term trend, down 12.7% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, limits births, as few children are born out of wedlock in Japan.
A 2023 Nippon Foundation survey found only 16.5% of teens aged 17-19 believe they will marry, despite many wanting to, reflecting economic uncertainties and shifting norms, as cited by The Guardian.
Women face a stark choice between financial independence and motherhood, with childcare costs for two children consuming nearly half of an average couple's income, compared to 20% less in the U.S., per the Michigan Journal of Economics.
Initiatives like the 2023 "Children's Future Strategy," offering flexible paternity leave and increased child allowances (KES 15,000-30,000 monthly), aim to ease burdens, but experts argue these measures fall short without addressing work-life balance and gender disparities.
Government responses include the 2023 launch of the Children and Families Agency to centralise demographic policies, with plans to double childcare spending to 4% of GDP by 2030.
However, local successes, like 300 small towns boosting births through generous subsidies, suggest targeted policies work better than national cash transfers, which have limited impact.
Immigration, while up 10% to 2.99 million foreign residents in 2022, remains contentious, with public support for temporary workers but resistance to long-term migration, as noted by Wikipedia.
On social media, highlight the population drop to 124.3 million, with a 91,000 decrease in Japanese nationals offset by a 25,000 increase in foreigners, signalling a slow shift in demographics.
Japan's economy, still the world's third-largest, faces stagnation risks without innovation and automation, though examples like Finland show growth is possible despite population decline.
The path forward requires balancing cultural shifts with economic reforms. Expanding childcare facilities, which increased 63% from 2013 to 2023, have stabilised the fertility rate slightly, but usage remains low at 52%.
Policies encouraging men to take paternity leave and addressing gender wage gaps could support women's dual roles, as suggested by CBS News.
Without significant change, Japan's population is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, with profound implications for its economy, workforce, and cultural identity. As Ishiba pushes for urgent action, the nation faces a critical window to reverse this silent crisis.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Bana Kenya.