Mumbai, July 31 -- Surging crude oil prices driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions will act as a key ceiling for Indian stock market rallies, though strong valuations and support levels near 23,800 will cushion major downsides, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said in an exclusive interview with ANI.

Analyzing the macroeconomic risks posed by elevated oil prices, Chouhan outlined scenario-based projections for inflation, GDP, and currency volatility.

"In the base-case scenario, if crude prices sustain above the mark of USD 85... it will start impacting the balance of payments, the current account deficit, and eventually inflation," Chouhan stated, noting that retail inflation could climb to 4.8-5.2 per...