New Delhi, June 8 -- India's FY27 economic narrative is tilting toward inflation rather than a broad growth slump, with rural households set to bear the brunt as food prices rise and crude stays elevated.

Nuvama Institutional Equities says the monsoon has set in over Kerala with initial progress broadly on track, but rainfall deficits and El Nino risks raise the stakes for kharif crops and reservoir levels through September.

"FY27 is shaping up as an inflation-led rural slowdown rather than a broad-based economic downturn," Nuvama noted. The report projects headline CPI inflation at around 5.7%, materially above the RBI's 4.6% forecast, driven by weather-related supply disruptions, high crude oil prices, fuel pass-through and higher fer...