New Delhi, April 16 -- While India's March 2026 trade deficit came in lower than expected, Yes Securities has cautioned that underlying factors point to a likely widening in the coming months, driven by external shocks, slowing global demand, and structural pressures on the import bill.

The report noted that "India's March trade deficit surprised at only USD 21 bn," aided by a temporary compression in imports and a sequential recovery in exports. However, it emphasized that this improvement may not be sustained.

A major reason for the smaller deficit was a sharp drop in imports, especially gold and oil. Gold imports fell to about USD 3.1 billion, and oil imports declined to around USD 12.2 billion. However, this decrease was not entirel...