New Delhi, June 7 -- The speed of semaglutide genericisation and GLP-1 pricing after 2031/32 will likely depend less on demand and more on peptide API manufacturing capacity, Goldman Sachs expects. China already leads in synthetic API supply and is likely to be the key source for global generic players launching semaglutide ahead of patent expiry in 2027. The big unknown is whether CDMO capacity built for branded drugs gets diverted to generics, and whether SPPS can scale fast enough to meet a market Goldman models at ~99,000 kg of peptide API by 2030.

Goldman Sachs models US GLP-1 sales at $66 billion by 2030, split 50/50 between orals and injectables. To serve that market, about 35,000 kg of peptide API will be needed by 2030 and 57,00...