New Delhi, May 13 -- India's FY27E CPI inflation is expected to average between 4.8 per cent and 4.9 per cent, according to a report by Elara Capital, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely maintain its current interest rate pause.

As per the report, any transition toward a rate hike remains unlikely unless headline inflation durably reaches the 6 per cent threshold and demonstrates significant persistence, a scenario that may only materialise in the second half of FY27 if global crude oil prices stay above USD 100 per barrel.

"Overall, we maintain our FY27E CPI projection at an average of 4.8- 4.9 per cent YoY and expect RBI MPC to remain on a pause till headline inflation durably reaches 6 per cent levels and show...