New Delhi, April 18 -- The Indian agricultural sector faces a significant period of uncertainty due to a below-normal monsoon forecast and the ongoing conflict in West Asia, threatening to disrupt production and rural economic growth. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, estimating rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). This projection represents the lowest initial forecast in at least 25 years and indicates a sharp reversal from the above-normal rainfall recorded during 2024 and 2025.

Bank of Baroda noted that the performance of the monsoon carries heavy weight for the broader economy. "Total rainfall has a close relation with both kharif and ra...