Jakarta, April 9 -- Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that global climate patterns could shift toward a weak to moderate El Niño in the second half of 2026, with a 50-80 percent probability, raising the risk of drought and wildfires.

BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani said the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but signs of a transition toward El Niño require vigilance as they could intensify the dry season.

Based on expert assessments, the agency said the dry season could arrive earlier and last longer, with overall conditions in 2026 expected to be drier than normal.

"Drought and El Niño are different phenomena. Drought is part of a climatol...